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Conservation Biology

Wiley

Preprints posted in the last 90 days, ranked by how well they match Conservation Biology's content profile, based on 14 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.01% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

1
Sharks, Rays, & MPAs: Evaluating protected area coverage in national waters across species ranges

Arnold, A. E.; Matsushiba, J. H.; Dulvy, N. K.

2026-03-20 ecology 10.64898/2026.03.18.712493 medRxiv
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Global conservation agreements emphasize protected area coverage targets, such as the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Frameworks 30x30 target, yet their effectiveness in safeguarding biodiversity remains uncertain. We measure the intersection between marine protected area (MPAs) coverage and the distribution of sharks and rays. Using global range maps and MPA boundaries within national Exclusive Economic Zones, we calculate the percent of species ranges within MPAs, focusing on no-take areas. We reveal significant shortfalls in species-level protection. Within national waters, no Critically Endangered species has more than 5% of its range in no-take MPAs, and 79% of threatened species have less than 1%. We also find the WDPA contains major gaps in take-status reporting, only one third of countries (34%) report take-status of any MPAs to the WDPA, further limiting estimates of meaningful protection. These results highlight the implementation gap between global coverage targets and biodiversity outcomes, reinforcing the need for species-focused protection.

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Defining ecologically realistic biodiversity offset multipliers with the Response-based Habitat Hectare Assessment of Biodiversity Gains (REHAB)

Jalkanen, J.; Nieminen, E.; Ahola, A.; Luoma, E.; Pekkonen, M.; Halme, P.; Kotiaho, J.; Kujala, H.

2026-01-28 ecology 10.64898/2026.01.26.701764 medRxiv
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In biodiversity offsetting, balancing biodiversity losses with gains can be achieved by using multipliers that define the ratio between the magnitude of biodiversity loss and the area required to deliver equivalent biodiversity gains. Although there is broad scientific consensus that multipliers should be calibrated to deliver no net loss or a net gain for biodiversity, they are often applied without quantitative assessment of the ecological outcomes of offset actions. Here we operationalise the Response-based Habitat Hectare Assessment of Biodiversity Gains (REHAB), a framework where multipliers are informed by an understanding of habitat-specific ecological responses to offset action. To support Finlands national biodiversity offsetting scheme, we harnessed the knowledge of 111 experts to compile ecological attributes and condition matrices for all 388 Finnish habitat types and derive 346 offset action multipliers that represent ecological response functions for 216 habitat type-specific offset actions including restoration, management and passive recovery. Our analysis reveals substantial variation in response-functions, resulting in offset multipliers between 1.3-4,000 across offset actions and habitat types. We find that the fixed multipliers commonly used in offset schemes would result in net loss in 60% of the cases if action- habitat specific responses were not considered. This variability underscores that fixed multipliers cannot deliver reliable biodiversity outcomes and should be avoided in offsetting schemes. The REHAB framework has already been integrated into Finlands national offsetting policy. Other potential areas of application include informing ecosystem restoration planning and assessing biodiversity gains linked to credit issuance in emerging nature-credit markets.

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Biodiversity monitoring in agricultural landscapes: Why it matters

Verdade, L. M.; de Andrade Moral, R.

2026-03-03 ecology 10.64898/2026.02.28.708698 medRxiv
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Although agricultural expansion and intensification have caused extensive biodiversity loss, agricultural landscapes remain central to global conservation outcomes. No country can conserve its entire biota exclusively within conservation units, even under ideal management. Consequently, biodiversity conservation, ecosystem service provision, and food security increasingly depend on how agricultural landscapes are managed. We argue that quantitative, standardized biodiversity monitoring is paramount for aligning agricultural production with biodiversity conservation. We highlight a structural limitation in current crediting frameworks that renders long-term guardianship economically invisible relative to post-disturbance recovery. Using empirical evidence from regenerated forests, we show that guardianship can deliver substantially greater carbon benefits than additionality alone. Together, these perspectives provide a framework for integrating biodiversity conservation and agricultural sustainability in multifunctional landscapes.

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Temporal span of biodiversity monitoring mediates the effects of area and environment

Mellado Mansilla, D.; Midolo, G.; Ortega-Solis, G.; Reif, J.; Grattarola, F.; Craven, D.; Leroy, F.; Perrone, M.; Stastny, K.; Bejcek, V.; Keil, P.

2026-02-09 ecology 10.64898/2026.02.09.704769 medRxiv
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The scale at which diversity is observed shapes the patterns we find. While spatial scale is known to influence biodiversity patterns, the effects of temporal scale, namely the average duration of sampling (known as temporal span), have been mostly overlooked. Here, we investigate how temporal span affects species richness patterns, their environmental drivers, and species richness hotspots. We used species richness data from several large bird datasets from Czechia, with over 7000 observations, a spatial grain ranging from 0.03 to 100 km2, and a temporal span ranging from 1 to 36 years (1985-2017). Using Random Forests, we modelled species richness as a response to temporal span, while also including area, geographic location, time, and environmental and land-cover predictors. We found that the temporal span is consistently among the most important predictors of bird species richness. Moreover, temporal span interacts with key environmental conditions, particularly precipitation and water bodies, modulating their effects on species richness and revealing processes that differ from those traditionally attributed solely to spatial grain. We also found that using different time spans can shift the predicted locations of biodiversity hotspots. Our results provide empirical evidence that temporal span should be included in studies about biodiversity and conservation planning, given the urgent challenges arising from ongoing biodiversity change and the complexity of its drivers.

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Conservation Blind Spot: The Critical Role of Larval Stage in Assessing Extinction Risk

Song, Y.-F.; Wang, Y.-L.; Yuan, Z.-Y.; Li, Q.-Q.; Zhou, W.-W.

2026-03-19 ecology 10.64898/2026.03.17.712346 medRxiv
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In an era of severe global biodiversity threats, understanding the link between species traits and their endangerment helps uncover causes of risk and infer threats to understudied species. Most animals have complex life cycles with distinct stages that may face stage-specific threats. Current conservation frameworks rely heavily on adult traits, potentially misjudging extinction risk. Using Chinese anurans as a model, we integrated functional traits from both adult and tadpole stages to examine their association with extinction risk. We found that body size positively correlates with risk in both stages. Microhabitat use related with extinction risk in tadpoles but shows no significant link in adults. Adult relative tympanum diameter and head length also correlate with extinction risk. These results indicate that species vulnerability is shaped by multi-stage traits, with both shared and stage-specific threats. Conservation based solely on adult traits may fail to accurately assess species threats. We call for integrating a whole-life-history perspective into biodiversity assessment and conservation to more effectively address the global biodiversity crisis.

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Applying a metaweb approach to reserve design: large, well protected areas are crucial to maintain food webs

Villain, T.; Erve-Sauvez, H.; Poggiale, J.-C.; Marsily, C.; Loeuille, N.

2026-03-03 ecology 10.64898/2026.03.01.708826 medRxiv
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Establishing protected areas is a promising tool to address the accelerating loss of biodiversity. However, protection levels are often low, and there is an ongoing debate over the most effective spatial configuration of reserves. This debate rarely considers trophic structure and ignores biodiversity outside protected areas. In this study, we investigate which reserve configurations best support species diversity and the persistence of high trophic levels, across systems and spatial scales, both inside and outside protected areas. Using a spatially explicit stochastic model, we assess how reserve architecture influences multiple conservation objectives across 27 empirical terrestrial, freshwater, and marine food webs. Specifically, we explore reserve architecture along three dimensions: the aggregation of protected areas, their proportion at the landscape scale, and the effectiveness level of protection measures. Our results show that having few but larger protected areas enhances all conservation metrics within reserves, while diversity within and outside reserves is relatively insensitive to reserve aggregation. Smaller and more dispersed reserves improve the overall abundance of species off-reserves through spillover effects. Reconciling all objectives inside and outside reserves becomes feasible when protection effectiveness is sufficiently high. Increasing the efficiency of protection allows for a reduction in the total amount of protected land without compromising conservation outcomes. Moreover, higher species dispersal facilitates the achievement of multiple conservation goals, supporting the implementation of architectures that enhance connectivity among reserves. These findings highlight the importance of an integrated approach combining spatial ecology and trophic functioning to optimize protected area planning under multiple objectives.

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ecoTolerance: An R package for Assessing Road and Human Footprint Tolerance in Wildlife Species

Miranda, D. F.; Forti, L. R.

2026-02-28 ecology 10.64898/2026.02.26.708267 medRxiv
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Most wildlife species currently inhabit areas transformed by human activity, a hallmark of the Anthropocene. Habitat alterations caused by the creation of roads and other human-made infrastructures shape the spatial distribution of wildlife species and their interaction with the environment. While some sensitive species disappear, more tolerant ones thrive near humans. Therefore, a streamlined tool to quantify the tolerance of different species to human pressures is useful to conservation, in particular to identify more vulnerable species. Here, we present ecoTolerance, an open-source R package that calculates two complementary, continuous metrics: the Road Tolerance Index (RTI), derived from the distance of each occurrence record to the nearest road, and the Human-Footprint Tolerance Index (HFTI), based on the global human-footprint raster. This package is based on a workflow that includes separate functions and arguments to automate data cleaning, spatial thinning, distance extraction, species-level summarization and map generation. As an applied example of its use and application, we processed 3782 records of five species: Copaifera langsdorffii (1407 observations), Bradypus variegatus (724), Sylvilagus brasiliensis (274), Boana faber (1226), and Boana boans (151), revealing RTI values that ranged from 0.183 to 0.654 and HFTI values from 0.111 to 0.392. the values of the two indices varied according to the incidence of road kill, as well as the habitat preference of the particular species. These examples demonstrate that ecoTolerance facilitates a rapid and streamlined assessment of species tolerance and vulnerability, providing valuable insights with potential to inform conservation actions.

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Looking backward for the future: long-term population recovery, habitat associations, and future climatic vulnerability of the critically endangered Sino-Mongolian beaver (Castor fiber birulai) in China

Chu, W.; Du, Y.; Salguero-Gomez, R.; Qi, Y.; Ma, C.; Lan, W.; Li, X.; Abulimit, R.; Zheng, F.; Liu, Z.; Gao, Y.; Liu, H.; He, C.; Li, K.; Chu, H.

2026-02-09 ecology 10.64898/2026.02.07.704560 medRxiv
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Despite the successful population recovery of the Eurasian beaver (Castor fiber) across much of Eurasia, its subspecies, the Sino-Mongolian beaver (C. f. birulai), remains critically endangered, with an estimated population of approximately 1,500 individuals confined to a small number of isolated and fragmented refugia along the China-Mongolia border. Effective conservation of this highly threatened subspecies requires a holistic perspective that integrates constraints on population dynamics, habitat associations, and future climatic vulnerability. Here, we combined systematic annual field surveys conducted between 2003 and 2023 with historical survey records from 1975 to 1989 in northern Xinjiang, China, to synthesize long-term spatiotemporal population dynamics, evaluate habitat preferences based on nine local environmental variables, and assess future climatic vulnerability using ensemble species distribution models (SDMs) under projected climate change scenarios. We detected a significant and phased population recovery, with beaver colony numbers increasing from 27 (approximately 100 individuals) in 1975 to 227 (681-908 individuals) in 2023. This recovery closely corresponded with major conservation milestones, including the establishment and upgrading of nature reserves, strengthened legislative protection, and enhanced multi-stakeholder collaboration. Habitat analyses further indicated that the Sino-Mongolian beaver preferentially occupied areas characterized by minimal anthropogenic disturbance and stable hydro-geomorphic conditions. Critically, SDM projections revealed that only 14% of the current study area presently exhibits high climatic suitability, and these highly suitable habitats are expected to disappear entirely by the 2050s. Together, our findings provide a comprehensive overview of the historical population recovery and conservation trajectory of the Sino-Mongolian beaver in China, and offer robust scientific support for developing adaptive management strategies in the face of ongoing climate change and increasing human pressures.

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Forest Owlet or Farmer's owlet: Scale-dependent habitat selection reveals conditional compatibility between Forest Owlet conservation and traditional agroforestry in Gujarat, India

Patel, J. R.; Gamit, K.; Patel, S.; Suryawanshi, K.; Vasava, A.

2026-02-06 ecology 10.64898/2026.02.03.703545 medRxiv
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Understanding how species that are threatened with extinction utilise human-modified landscapes is essential for evidence-based conservation. We investigated multi-scale habitat selection by the Forest Owlet (Athene blewitti), an Endangered species, endemic to central India with fewer than 1000 mature individuals, in the Dangs district of Gujarat, the westernmost extent of its range. Using a hierarchical Bayesian occupancy framework, we examined how forest cover and three agricultural land-use types (dry agriculture with trees, dry agriculture without trees, and intensive agriculture) affected occupancy across three nested spatial scales: regional (81 km2), landscape (4 km2), and territory (0.25 km2). At the regional scale, the forest x agriculture interaction term was significantly negative ({beta} = -6.82, 95% CI: -9.87 to -1.59), indicating that owlets favour agroforestry-dominated regions over forest-dominated landscapes. Conversely, at the landscape scale, a significant positive interaction ({beta} = 1.36, 95% CI: 0.41-2.50) revealed synergistic benefits from forest-agriculture mosaics. Agriculture type strongly influenced landscape-scale occupancy: dry agriculture with trees showed positive effects ({beta} = 1.17, 95% CI: 0.43-2.02), whereas dry agriculture without trees had significant negative effects ({beta} = -1.19, 95% CI: -2.28 to -0.29). These findings demonstrate that Forest Owlets are not forest-obligate specialists but occupy complex agroforestry mosaics, requiring multi-scale conservation strategies. We propose that the traditional Malki agroforestry system, which incentives tree retention on farmland, offers conditional compatibility with Forest Owlet conservation, provided that mature cavity-bearing trees and small forest patches are explicitly protected.

10
Mapping small-scale ephemeral surface water to inform transfrontier conservation planning in southern Africa

Swift, M. E.; Songhurst, A.; McCullogh, G.; Beytell, P.; Naidoo, R.

2026-04-04 ecology 10.64898/2026.04.03.715600 medRxiv
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Reliable freshwater access drives terrestrial wildlife movements and habitat use globally. The small, rain-fed seasonal pools critical for dryland wildlife persistence are vulnerable to rising temperatures and unstable precipitation regimes projected under climate change. In southern Africa, which is expected to warm rapidly by 2100, the drying and disappearance of surface water may cause a breakdown in seasonal migrations of large, area-sensitive, and water-dependent wildlife species. Furthermore, the disappearance of ephemeral water may concentrate wildlife around remaining surface water, increasing resource competition and human-wildlife conflict. An accurate understanding of the dynamics and drivers of seasonal surface water will therefore be critical to wildlife and human health as climate change intensifies. Here, we present a framework and empirical analysis of fine-scale surface water mapping in the 520,000km2 Kavango Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area (KAZA), the worlds largest terrestrial conservation area. From 2019-2025, we implemented Otsu thresholding on median Automated Water Extraction Index imagery from 10m Sentinel-2 MSI, leveraging high wet season contrast between vegetation and water as a dry season positive mask. We created >35 quasi-monthly KAZA-wide Ephemeral Surface Water (ESW) rasters (mean classification accuracy 87%, compared to 50% accuracy for existing water products), and found wet season precipitation drivers of non-riparian water fill levels did not extend into the dry season. Then, using GPS data from 27 African savanna elephants (Loxodonta africana), which typically visit water every 48 hours, we compared elephant water visitation rates based on ESW to existing 30m Global Surface Water (GSW) maps. Models using ESW estimated 99% of elephant data came within a 48-hour window, compared to 42% for GSW, suggesting that ESW is a better proxy for actual wildlife water use in animal movement modeling. As aridification threatens to diminish surface water resources, we must model the drivers of wildlife movements at the scale of wildlife needs. With ESW, we provide fine scale accessible surface water data and a straightforward coding architecture for applications beyond KAZA.

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Ungulate conservation: Lessons from experimental white-lipped peccary management in agricultural-natural landscape mosaics of the Brazilian Cerrado

Painkow Neto, E.; Silvius, K. M.; Barquero, G.; Neves, D. C.; Fragoso, J. M. V.

2026-04-04 ecology 10.64898/2026.04.03.716323 medRxiv
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Animal population control is widely used to mitigate conflicts between wildlife and agriculture worldwide. Structured, monitored removals are rare in South America, however, and their consequences for wildlife populations as well as their effectiveness in reducing crop damage are little understood. Using eight years of data from an experimental white-lipped peccary management program in an agricultural mosaic in the Brazilian Cerrado biome, we assess how structured, non-lethal removals affect both peccary demography and second-crop corn damage. Leslie removal models based on 6,619 captured individuals indicated that cumulative removals to approximately 85% of the initial population strongly reduced peccary abundance, with limited demographic compensation despite fluctuations in reproductive output. Corn crop damage, quantified with satellite imagery, declined over time and was correlated with peccary population size. Interannual variation in population growth and juvenile recruitment was poorly explained by climate, fire, or landscape composition. Source-sink dynamics likely play a role in maintaining healthy populations at the regional scale. Together, these results demonstrate that sustained and monitored ungulate removals can reliably reduce population size and agricultural damage, supporting coexistence between wildlife and food crop production in human-dominated tropical landscapes.

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Tradeoffs in planning marine protected areas for kelp forest resilience: protecting climate refugia is not always the best solution

Hopf, J. K.; Giraldo-Ospina, A.; Caselle, J.; Kroeker, K.; Carr, M.; Hastings, A.; White, J. W.

2026-04-04 ecology 10.64898/2026.04.01.715997 medRxiv
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Marine protected areas (MPAs) are increasingly promoted as climate mitigation tools, yet guidance on their placement to maximize resilience against climate stressors like marine heatwaves remains limited. Here, we develop MPA placement guidelines that explicitly consider a mechanistic pathway through which MPAs could enhance kelp forest resilience to heatwaves: protecting fishery-targeted urchin predators to prevent kelp overgrazing. Using a spatially explicit, tri-trophic model of California kelp forests, we evaluate alternative MPA configurations across a hypothetical coastline where half the habitat experiences an increased probability of experiencing heatwaves. We found that effective MPA placement depends on whether MPAs are being newly established or reconfigured within an existing network, and that among-patch connectivity and spillover played vital roles in the relative effectiveness of different MPA configurations. Changes in resilience occurred primarily at the patch scale, with trade-offs between increased within-MPA resilience and decreased resilience in some fished areas, resulting in minimal coastwide population effects. For example, for new MPAs, large single MPAs within heatwave-prone areas maximized within-MPA resilience gains, while multiple small MPAs in heatwave refugia best supported whole-coast resilience. When reconfiguring established networks, expanding existing MPAs in refugia areas was most effective. We also demonstrate the importance of considering MPA recovery timescales: for example, relocating old MPAs to heatwave refugia yielded minimal short-term benefits due to the loss of rebuilt, previously fished, predator biomass. Our findings demonstrate that climate-adaptive marine planning should explicitly consider the spatiotemporal implications of trophic cascades, connectivity, and transient population dynamics to support ecosystem resilience.

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Spatio-temporal shifts driven by climate change threaten persistence and resilience of honey bee populations

Kükrer, M.

2026-03-25 ecology 10.64898/2026.03.25.713998 medRxiv
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Understanding how climate shapes intraspecific genetic turnover is critical for predicting biodiversity responses to global change, yet such analyses remain limited for systems where natural adaptation and human-mediated dispersal jointly structure diversity. Here, we investigate the spatio-temporal dynamics of genetic composition in the western honey bee (Apis mellifera) across Anatolia and Thrace, a major historical refugium harboring five subspecies. Using a dataset of 672 individuals genotyped at 30 microsatellite loci, we characterize population structure and model ancestry compositions as a function of environmental and geographic variables. We integrate Gradient Forests and Generalized Dissimilarity Modelling to identify key climatic drivers of intra-specific turnover and project future changes under multiple CMIP6 climate scenarios. We detect five major ancestral groups with widespread admixture structured by both spatial processes and environmental gradients. While geographic distance explains a substantial proportion of variation, climatic variables account for a large fraction of ancestry turnover. Spatial projections reveal distinct ecological regions corresponding to subspecies distributions, with high turnover zones aligned with major geographic and ecological barriers. Climate projections indicate substantial restructuring of ancestry compositions over the 21st century. Most ancestral groups show declines in persistence and resilience, whereas lineages associated with warmer and drier conditions expand under future scenarios. Regions of high uniqueness and refugia contract, while areas experiencing rapid turnover and novel ancestry compositions increase. Existing Genetic Conservation Areas provide incomplete representation of diversity and are projected to lose effectiveness under future climates. Our results demonstrate that climate change is likely to disrupt spatial genetic structure, promote admixture, and threaten persistence and resilience of honey bee populations. By modeling ancestry composition as a multidimensional proxy for genetic variation, for the first time to our knowledge, this study provides a scalable framework for forecasting intraspecific biodiversity dynamics and informing conservation and management strategies under global change.

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Persistent declines in forest-dependent birds following active restoration of logged tropical forest in Borneo

Cerullo, G.; Balmford, A.; Benedick, S.; Finlayson, C.; Jackson, T.; Jucker, T.; Kong, D.; Mills, S.; Mitchell, S.; Morton, O.; Edwards, D.

2026-02-17 ecology 10.64898/2026.02.15.705981 medRxiv
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O_LITropical forest restoration is critical for mitigating biodiversity loss and climate change, including in forests impacted by selective logging. Active restoration through liana cutting and enrichment tree planting can substantially accelerate carbon recovery, potentially reducing economic pressures to convert logged forests. But its long-term biodiversity impacts remain largely unknown. C_LIO_LIUsing over two decades of bird survey data from Borneos largest logged-forest restoration project, we quantified occupancy patterns for 176 species across primary, naturally regenerating, and actively restored logged forests spanning a 30+ year post-logging chronosequence. C_LIO_LIForest-dependent, threatened and near-threatened species generally declined through time in actively restored areas, whereas many species in naturally regenerating forests progressively recovered toward primary forest levels. Between 17-40% of 66 threatened or near-threatened species had consistently lower occupancies in actively restored than in naturally regenerating forest. Across species of global conservation concern, median occupancies in restored areas remained [~]22% below primary forest even 50 years after harvests, compared with only [~]6% lower under natural regeneration. C_LIO_LIArboreal insectivores, frugivores, and predatory species appeared most negatively affected by active restoration, with 27-49% of arboreal gleaning insectivores (of 62), 13-30% of arboreal frugivores (of 40), and one-third of predatory species (of 15) showing higher occupancy in naturally regenerating forests. Sallying insectivores also showed a possible but uncertain response, whereas ground-associated frugivores and insectivores were largely unaffected by restoration treatment. C_LIO_LIConcerningly, even 50 years post-logging, up to 52% of 50 high forest-dependency species retained distinct occupancies in actively restored compared with primary forest, suggesting persistent negative impacts of vine-cutting and/or tree planting activities on avian populations. C_LIO_LISynthesis and applications. Our findings indicate that despite substantial carbon benefits, active restoration within selectively logged forests may impede the recovery of forest-dependent biodiversity. This challenges the common assumption embedded within nature-based climate solutions that carbon and biodiversity outcomes will necessarily align. Nonetheless, despite the persistent declines in bird communities, actively restored forests continued to provide key habitat for many species. Active interventions may thus still contribute to broader biodiversity conservation objectives if they protect logged areas from conversion, potentially via carbon payments. C_LI

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Ghostbusting the national bird checklist: integrative evidence shows that Pionus fuscus does not occur in Colombia

Carrillo-Restrepo, J. C.; Velasquez-Tibata, J.

2026-03-26 ecology 10.64898/2026.03.23.713821 medRxiv
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Natural history collections underpin our understanding of species distributions, yet some historical records remain embedded in modern avifaunal checklists despite limited documentation and no independent verification. One such case concerns the Dusky Parrot Pionus fuscus in Colombia: although reported from specimens collected by Melbourne A. Carriker Jr. in 1942 in the Serrania de Perija, the species has not been observed in the country for nearly eight decades yet continues to be included in national checklists and conservation assessments. We reassessed the validity of this record by applying a multi-evidence framework integrating historic archival reconstruction, specimen-based morphological comparisons, climatic niche analyses, biogeographic limit assessment and contemporary survey-effort data. Historical documentation and morphological evidence based on high-resolution specimen images and associated curatorial records demonstrate that the Carriker specimens correspond to Pionus chalcopterus, not P. fuscus. Climatic niche analyses reveal minimal environmental overlap between P. chalcopterus and P. fuscus, and place the Perija locality within the climatic niche of P. chalcopterus, while regional biogeography and extensive modern birdwatching coverage provide no support for the occurrence of P. fuscus in Perija. Together, these concordant lines of evidence demonstrate that P. fuscus does not occur in Colombia. Our findings support its removal from national bird lists and conservation assessments and highlight how integrated, multi-evidence reassessments of historical records strengthen ornithological baselines, improve biogeographic inference and ensure that conservation priorities rest on verifiable evidence.

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Freshwater biodiversity is not adequately addressed by the current protected areas of the Caribbean biodiversity hotspot

Torres-Cambas, Y.; Diez, Y. L.; Megna, Y. S.; Salazar-Salina, J. C.; Domisch, S.

2026-03-18 ecology 10.64898/2026.03.16.712036 medRxiv
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AimFreshwater species face significant challenges from direct and indirect anthropogenic impacts, leading to a global decline in freshwater biodiversity. Protected areas are a key tool for conservation, but their effectiveness in covering freshwater biodiversity remains uncertain. This study assesses the protection coverage of freshwater macroinvertebrates, vertebrates, and macrophytes in Cuba against the 17% and 30% conservation targets set by the Convention on Biological Diversity. LocationCaribbean biodiversity hotspot, including freshwater ecosystems across the Cuban archipelago. MethodsWe analyzed the distribution of 182 freshwater macroinvertebrates, 26 vertebrates, and 19 macrophyte species using an ensemble of four species distribution modeling techniques: Maxent, Boosted Regression Trees (BRT), Random Forest (RF), and Spatial Stream Network (SSN). We evaluated species overlap with Cubas current protected areas and conducted spatial conservation prioritization exercises that (i) included (lock-in) and (ii) excluded (free-choice) existing protected areas. ResultsOur analysis revealed that 41% (90 species) and 71% (161 species) failed to meet the 17% and 30% conservation targets, respectively. Many of the insufficiently protected species are globally threatened or endemic to the Cuban archipelago, heightening their extinction risk. Conservation planning that includes current protected areas requires significantly larger areas to meet the 30% representation target due to redundancy in existing protections. Conversely, excluding current protected areas achieves conservation goals more efficiently with fewer resources. Both approaches highlight the need to improve connectivity, particularly in upstream regions that are often neglected under the current protected area configuration. Main conclusionsFreshwater biodiversity in Cuba is poorly represented within existing protected areas. Meeting the 30% conservation target would require protecting an additional 30-70% of area, with a focus on headwaters and underrepresented taxa. Expanding Cubas National System of Protected Areas (SNAP) to prioritize fresh-water species, particularly endemics, is essential. A spatial conservation planning approach that integrates both lock-in and free-choice strategies can optimize resource use while enhancing connectivity across key rivers and tributaries.

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Identifying adaptive variation in spatially structured populations using low-coverage whole-genome sequencing data

Goel, N.; Bossu, C. M.; Yi, S.; Robertson, E. C. N.; Brown, T. M.; Bolton, P. E.; Vernasco, B. J.; Zavaleta, E.; Ruegg, K. C.; Hooten, M. B.

2026-01-21 genomics 10.64898/2026.01.19.700474 medRxiv
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Successful implementation of evolutionary management programs to rescue climatically threatened species requires identification of adaptive genetic variation. Although current genotype-environment association methods have been successful in identifying adaptive variation, they can be improved in two important aspects. First, most existing methods do not account for genotype uncertainty in widely available low-coverage whole-genome sequencing data. Researchers often restrict analysis to loci for which genotypes can be inferred reliably or call the most probable genotype, allowing the use of traditional genotype-based methods, such as BayeScEnv and Bayenv. However, discarding data and false genotype calls increases the uncertainty in estimates of genetic variation and introduces systematic biases. Second, most methods use phenomenological approaches, such as logistic regression, to partition estimated genetic variation into adaptive and non-adaptive components. Consequently, current approaches may inadvertently fail to account for evolutionary processes, such as migration-selection balance. Structured migration between climatically disparate locations can produce deviations from a smooth S-shape response curve, which can be difficult to accommodate using generalized linear regression models. To overcome these challenges, we developed a method that accounts for genotype uncertainty in sequencing data and propagates this uncertainty to inform the parameters of a model of evolution. A key feature of this evolutionary model is that it mechanistically describes how genetic variation arises from joint interactions between local adaptation, structured migration, mutation, and drift. We apply our approach to analyze multiple synthetic datasets and a real dataset of North American rosy-finches (3.7 million SNPs), a high-alpine, climatically threatened clade of bird species.

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Can data mining from various internet platforms systematically accelerate detection of alien species invasions across the EU?

Reynaert, S.; Billiet, N.; Pipek, P.; Novoa, A.; Hulme, P.; Meeus, S.; Groom, Q.

2026-02-07 ecology 10.64898/2026.02.06.704325 medRxiv
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Invasive alien species (IAS) expansions are increasingly impacting the biodiversity and economy of Europe. To more effectively allocate the limited resources available for their management, it is pertinent to accelerate detection of IAS spread and distribution. One largely untapped secondary data source showing much potential lies in the automated tracking of internet activity such as IAS search intensity or mentions across different internet platforms. In this study, we tested if internet activity increases systematically when IAS expand into new EU countries utilizing the combined data of 88 invasive species from various internet platforms. In total, 14 internet platforms were screened and evaluated based on their database accessibility, mined data quality and utility for systematic IAS expansion tracking. We found that the procedure to obtain researcher access to minimal data required for IAS tracking (i.e., information about location, time and place) varies widely across platforms, and is particularly difficult without incurring significant costs for many of the larger ones (X, Google and Tiktok). From the explored species, more charismatic species (i.e., mammals) overall gained more online traction than more cryptic ones (i.e., plants), though online activity of the first proved a worse representation of real-world occurrence patterns. Moreover, while the final five selected internet platforms showed increased activity surrounding the year of invasion in many of the explored invasion scenarios (particularly Wikipedia and Facebook), inconsistencies between species groups, trends per platform and the large variability in data quality currently still hampers systematic integration of such data into existing databases. We conclude that combining IAS activity data from various internet platforms shows potential to accelerate IAS expansion detection across the EU (especially for fish, crustaceans, reptiles, birds and plants). However, incorporation in automated early warning systems is currently hampered by variable data quality, limited researcher access to online data and the few open, accurate and generalizable species classification algorithms with API access.

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The effect of outdoor recreation on mammal habitat use and diversity revealed by COVID-19 closures

Dimitriou, A.; Benson-Amram, S.; Gaynor, K.; Burton, C.

2026-04-04 ecology 10.64898/2026.04.02.715670 medRxiv
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The rising demand for outdoor recreation worldwide may be undermining the conservation objectives of protected areas (PAs). We leveraged a natural experiment, in which two adjacent PAs were closed to the public for different durations during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using detections from 39 camera traps in Joffre Lakes and Garibaldi Parks, Canada, from 2020-2022, we examined how recreation influenced mammal habitat use and diversity. Bayesian regression showed weak evidence that, when recreation was higher, detections declined for black bear, mule deer, and marten, while detections of bobcat and hoary marmot shifted closer to trails. Accumulation curves revealed that species richness and diversity were higher in the closed vs. open PA in 2020 (mean differences of -5.04 for richness and -0.33 for Shannon diversity). However, diversity did not decline consistently despite increases in recreation in 2021 and 2022. Notably, several rare species were only detected in the lower-recreation PA, suggesting they may be filtered out of the higher-recreation PA. This emphasizes the need for long-term monitoring to detect delayed and cumulative effects of recreation on mammal communities. Given growing global pressures on biodiversity, we urge PA managers to prioritize adaptive management to assess and balance outdoor recreation with conservation goals.

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A biosecurity baseline for transboundary management of marine biological invasions in the ROPME Sea Area

Vilizzi, L.; Abbas, A. M.; Mubarak, M. A.; Alavi, M. H.; Shojaei, M.; Moghaddas, D.; Rahmani, H.; Albu Salih, A. A. R.; Al-Khayyat, M. F. A.; Al-Faisal, A. J.; Al-Marhoun, A. F.; Abdulhussain, A. H.; Alkhamees, J.; Karam, Q. E.; Behbehani, W.; Al Rezaiqi, M.; Al Tarshi, M.; Salman, S. F.; Al Jamaei, A. M.; El Mahdi, M. E. A.; Mohamed, A. A.; Sabbagh, E. I.; Mehzoud, N.; Al Shamsi, O. A. H.; Al-Wazzan, Z.

2026-03-17 ecology 10.64898/2026.03.13.711635 medRxiv
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Marine and brackish-water ecosystems are increasingly degraded by cumulative human pressures, with biological invasions representing a major driver of biodiversity loss, ecosystem disruption, and socio-economic impacts. Effective management requires regionally harmonized and scientifically robust baselines capable of supporting coordinated transboundary decision-making. Here we present the first consolidated marine biosecurity baseline for the Regional Organization for the Protection of the Marine Environment (ROPME) Sea Area, a transboundary region characterized by extreme environmental conditions and increasing biosecurity pressure. A total of 192 species (123 extant and 69 horizon), including birds, fishes, tunicates, invertebrates, plants, and chromists, were systematically reviewed, taxonomically validated, and cross-checked against major databases and Member State inputs. Re-evaluation of a previous regional screening revealed substantial inconsistencies, with 24 species ({approx}18%) requiring status correction or exclusion. The resulting consolidated inventory comprised 130 validated retained species supplemented by 62 additional taxa. Extant species were classified according to biogeographic origin and impact status, whereas horizon species were evaluated based on introduction pathways, environmental suitability, and projected climate trends. Risk screening under current and projected climate conditions identified 39 extant species as very high risk, providing an operational basis for progression to full risk assessment and coordinated regional biosecurity management.